Prices are up, and sales are down. That’s the bottom line this lovely February morning. So what does that mean for you? Well let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers and figure that out.

Salt Lake County – January 2022, Single Family Homes, Year/Year

• $587,500 median sold price, which is a 31% increase from January 2021 
• $238 median price per square foot, which is up 27% from last year  
• 609 homes sold, which is a 14% decrease from January 2021 when we had 710 sales
• 12 median days on market, up from 9 in January 2021 

Park City Area – January 2022, Single Family Homes, Year/Year

• $2,700,000 median sold price, which is up 61% from January 2021 
• $652 median price per square foot, which is up 14% from last year
• 35 homes sold, which is a decline of 28% from last year when we had 49 sales 
• 21 median days on market, up from 18 in January 2021 

The rate of price appreciation continues to surprise us all. Last month we wrote about a 4.5% increase in median sold price in Salt Lake County from November to December. And now, we’ve seen another 2.7% increase from December to January. 

Will this momentum carry into spring? It certainly looks that way from our vantage point. 

A few other industry experts seem to think so too. Last month, the Salt Lake Board of Realtors published the 2022 Housing Forecast Executive Report by James Woods of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. We wanted to share some of the highlights from that report with you here:  

“Statewide, prices increased by 27%, shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978. Undoubtedly, the year is bound to become a historical reference point, much like the Great Recession.”

“Right now, housing prices in the Salt Lake Metropolitan Area are higher than 87% of all major metropolitan areas in the country.”

“There is no sign of a slowdown, yet. For the past nine months, prices have consistently increased more than 20%, when compared to the same month the year before.”

“In the aftermath of the Great Recession (2008-2011), housing prices fell by 15.6%. This is the only instance in the past 75 years of housing history when price declines lasted more than a few consecutive quarters.”

“From the historical data, it appears that a housing bubble, with its extended price decline, must be associated with a substantial loss in jobs. So for Utah to experience a housing bubble in the near term would require a loss of jobs, an unlikely prospect in the next few years. Furthermore, Utah’s only housing bubble occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. The conditions of which are not present today.” 

“By far, the most likely outcome for housing prices in Utah over the next two to three years is a period of price moderation, similar to what occurred in the late 1970s and mid-1990s. An extended period of price declines created by a bursting bubble is very unlikely.” 

“Housing sales in 2021 were down about 8% year over year, but ultimately ranked as the 8th best year ever in units sold for Salt Lake County. Since 2015, residential real estate sales in Salt Lake County have been relatively stable, fluctuating within a range of 17,000 to 19,000 annual sales.” 

“Heading into 2022, the price momentum will trend lower, but another year of double-digit increases is likely, so count on a 10% to 12% increase in prices overall.” 

In our own year end analysis and 2022 forecast, we also predicted that prices would increase more than 10% in 2022 and that total sales would likely hover around current levels due to inventory constraints. And so far, the total amount of sales do seem to be trending in line with this. 

We hope the confident predictions in the Forecast Report hold true (especially about a “bursting bubble” being “very unlikely”) but we simply don’t know that for sure. There are too many outside factors and unknowns for us to confidently state that. And we’d also like to point out that the Report was commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors – which is a little like a drug company procuring independent research to use in advertising.

There is, however, another new report out of the Kem C. Gardner Institute which estimates that 160 new residents are moving to Utah every day. And that nearly 60% of Utah’s population growth is now attributed to net migration. With that type of exponential population growth, the intensity of our current housing prices may never recede. Time will tell. 

So what does this mean for you?

If you’re hoping to sell your home this year but wondering when you should do it, our advice would be to start planning for it now.

And in order to do that, you’ll need to know exactly what your home would sell for. Knowing this will help you determine your options, help you decide where you can go, what type of home you can buy next, and ultimately to get yourself into the home you really want.

We know this market inside and out and have the experience to confidently tell you exactly how to price your home, so you can take full advantage of this market.

 

Give us a call today– consultations are always complimentary! 801.949.9878